New Mexico’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in August 2011, down from 6.7 percent in July and 8.5 percent a year ago. The national unemployment rate remained at 9.1 percent. The decline in New Mexico’s unemployment rate for August was the sixth in a series since the rate peaked at 8.7 percent at the start of the year. This drop was again the result of workers leaving the labor force rather than an increase in employment.

…so the raw numbers look good but only because people have given up.

From the New Mexico Business Weekly:

New Mexico’s unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in March, down from 8.7 percent in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. New Mexico’s .6 percent decrease in the jobless rate in March was the largest percentage drop of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

I have no explanation… still picking my jaw off the floor.

From the New Mexico Business Weekly:

New Mexico was one of only eight states to lose jobs during the past 12 months, according to new figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Land of Enchantment lost 2,800 jobs between January 2010 and January 2011, ranking it No. 46 out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

New Jersey is the state with the bleakest employment picture, losing 20,900 jobs between the first months of 2010 and 2011. Other states posting losses during the past year are Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Kansas, Alabama and Rhode Island.

For months, I’ve been talking about a long road to recovery in New Mexico and the Albuquerque region specifically. We just don’t have the employment base to add jobs quickly.

Clearly that continues to be the case. Unemployment in the Albuquerque area stayed steady at a very unpleasant 8.5% — and, while nearly 2/3rds of the nation’s major labor markets ADDED jobs in 2010, Albuquerque continued to lose. We started 2010 with just about 6,300 jobs more than we ended the year.

A long road back — and we haven’t taken even the first baby steps.

Last week’s Economic Outlook Conference was not exactly lighthearted. Here are some of the snapshots:

While 95% of the U.S. economy is growing, nothing is on the horizon to replace the housing market. It represents only 5% of the economy — but accounted for 90% of consumer consumption when it was hot.

Lack of mobility is hurting people who are looking for jobs. With so many home owners stuck with houses that are ‘under water’ (a mortgage greater than current value), many people can’t afford to move where jobs are located.

Locally, things are worse than they appear. We did experience income growth during the past year but fully 95% of that growth came from government payments: Social Security, unemployment benefits, food stamps, etc.

No good news — just the same “better-than-the-worst-news” that we have seen for the last few months.

New Mexico’s November unemployment rate was 8.5% — a slight uptick from October’s 8.4%.

Albuquerque’s November rate was 8.8% — flat from October.

In both cases, the education and health services sector provided one of the few bright spots. The list of declining sectors on a year-over-year basis was much longer: professional & business services, construction, manufacturing — all showed losses.

Nothing has changed my view that we are going to be digging out of this hole for at least three years.

– from a very deep hole.

We knocked a tenth of a point off the unemployment rate for the state as a whole: September was down to 8.2%. BUT — and it is a big ‘but’ — the extent of job losses is far less than last year and the expectation is that the state will be reporting a net gain in jobs by the end of the year. The manufacturing industry group is showing a net yearly gain of 1,700 jobs after months of devastation.

In Albuquerque, the same guarded optimism prevails. No great improvement but a clear sign that losses have finally slowed down.

Small reasons to cheer but in this worst-of-all-recessions since WW II, any reason is a good reason.

We have started ‘tracking’ the national unemployment rate to a certain extent… going up and down in lockstep. While we are at a lower level, we also have a smaller industrial base than most states and that means a slower recovery overall.

New Mexico saw an 8.3% rate this August — an increase of .1% over July.

Albuquerque followed the same trend — an increase of .1% over July’s 8.6%

BOTH marched in lockstep with the increase at the national level to 9.6%

The only ray of sunshine was in manufacturing where the state added jobs: an increase of 1,000 from this time last year. Far too little, but at least a step in the right direction.

On a completely different subject… fall has arrived in New Mexico and that means the Balloon Fiesta and the smell of roasting chili on almost every street corner. Can you say ‘heaven’ ?

Unemployment in both the state as a whole and the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area fell last month. That is a good development, of course, but the raw numbers are anything but encouraging.

New Mexico:
June unemployment was 8.2% — down from 8.4% in May
Over-the-year job growth MINUS 1.8% — 14,200 jobs lost

Albuquerque/Rio Rancho
June unemployment was 8.6% — down from 8.8% in May
Over-the-year job growth MINUS 1.4% – 5,100 jobs lost

We have never been a ‘boom and bust’ state so getting back all those jobs is going to take a few years.

We finally had a drop in the unemployment rate…
New Mexico: May’s rate is 8.4% — April was 8.7%
Albuquerque: May’s rate is 8.8% — April was 9.0%

Small improvement — but at least the elevator is going in the right direction!